Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 886.959962 1011.257338 1153.232065 1328.830842 1542.176999 1795.588253 2.123325e+03
2024-10-20 695.750896 848.247902 1039.429005 1301.864360 1661.233229 2149.511848 2.888225e+03
2024-10-27 589.680248 745.882050 952.193003 1253.159222 1696.531414 2353.396997 3.460136e+03
2024-11-03 542.803498 710.081796 941.971542 1300.478032 1868.133919 2787.442510 4.528474e+03
2024-11-10 501.850615 674.524319 923.516900 1327.621233 2008.577083 3203.089530 5.730230e+03
2024-11-17 466.610936 641.721868 902.904853 1345.218839 2133.533029 3623.379085 7.137650e+03
2024-11-24 429.323581 601.164908 864.414745 1325.783037 2186.983049 3921.254996 8.429988e+03
2024-12-01 406.819651 580.383430 853.806248 1350.798116 2326.326730 4435.724525 1.058534e+04
2024-12-08 391.031160 568.183745 855.096930 1396.144942 2514.729535 5124.382759 1.378385e+04
2024-12-15 372.161173 549.045998 842.229279 1412.631608 2646.240519 5727.163883 1.728957e+04
2024-12-22 350.534059 523.408723 815.283345 1397.658237 2704.791542 6163.500280 2.065548e+04
2024-12-29 337.395827 510.784789 809.815391 1424.297876 2865.680719 6958.883799 2.674294e+04
2025-01-05 314.304091 480.409527 771.167745 1381.231407 2858.414921 7278.588837 3.117879e+04
2025-01-12 295.018914 455.373784 740.383972 1351.457391 2881.397940 7725.396049 3.749135e+04
2025-01-19 275.194463 427.883898 702.384194 1300.599133 2837.118084 7921.570998 4.264211e+04
2025-01-26 269.055674 424.181340 709.210450 1350.260135 3081.666747 9347.396524 6.324298e+04
2025-02-02 260.969941 416.281903 706.994019 1378.832115 3275.513037 10725.385216 9.176588e+04
2025-02-09 252.449924 406.924671 700.923347 1397.341022 3445.716422 12150.365372 1.339283e+05
2025-02-16 240.824441 390.993667 680.111408 1376.894012 3486.933854 12986.025613 1.759532e+05
2025-02-23 234.417555 384.456955 678.051989 1403.213079 3693.634111 14931.993407 2.866726e+05
2025-03-02 230.233450 381.841553 683.914919 1450.946107 3993.826886 17829.471715 5.653199e+05
2025-03-09 223.753070 374.330108 678.609908 1468.307064 4190.460526 20345.995618 1.086220e+06
2025-03-16 215.128343 362.090713 662.017567 1452.539487 4254.951969 21996.205679 1.883237e+06